Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 22.393297 24.342201 26.442415 28.884101 31.657568 34.725167 38.395774
2026-01-04 19.206204 21.853015 24.900363 28.708006 33.395167 39.053521 46.522907
2026-01-11 17.160155 20.232977 23.961732 28.906418 35.429101 43.949060 56.297235
2026-01-18 15.441552 18.714960 22.854386 28.614412 36.665787 47.930921 65.718001
2026-01-25 14.169388 17.570314 22.022733 28.480873 37.984585 52.150185 76.442627
2026-02-01 13.182527 16.669508 21.373530 28.451575 39.365225 56.626639 88.725416
2026-02-08 12.336510 15.861979 20.742183 28.325401 40.518428 60.892032 101.863658
2026-02-15 11.611440 15.148611 20.157445 28.167949 41.551248 65.099372 116.235770
2026-02-22 10.977828 14.507392 19.607480 27.978998 42.468266 69.239747 131.949837
2026-03-01 10.462466 13.993935 19.194958 27.947326 43.626049 74.046161 151.153436
2026-03-08 10.006676 13.532597 18.817326 27.919405 44.765879 79.044357 173.182942
2026-03-15 9.788489 13.408945 18.948390 28.756822 47.645325 88.432514 212.872942
2026-03-22 9.324201 12.889780 18.425948 28.426224 48.253736 93.033774 241.558584
2026-03-29 8.953682 12.494760 18.077498 28.375891 49.440491 99.411207 281.843093
2026-04-05 8.670448 12.219092 17.904154 28.627777 51.312658 108.143868 340.332874
2026-04-12 8.319698 11.814379 17.483234 28.365457 52.013022 113.965554 393.012444
2026-04-19 8.021530 11.477556 17.154001 28.245297 53.019379 121.037660 462.326060
2026-04-26 7.762057 11.189323 16.888252 28.221724 54.251318 129.277436 553.253046
2026-05-03 7.506442 10.893670 16.589078 28.099445 55.225252 137.101944 658.843121
2026-05-10 7.264117 10.607843 16.288740 27.944884 56.096476 144.978438 786.719709
2026-05-17 7.033657 10.330824 15.987012 27.758554 56.859667 152.848761 942.057492
2026-05-24 6.839614 10.106504 15.767686 27.727467 58.039333 162.921205 1167.749357
2026-05-31 6.658014 9.895026 15.559151 27.699964 59.231157 173.707241 1469.933508